Forecast of the minimum temperature in Goleta
![gabe [thumbnails].jpg](http://jaradniemi.com/blog/includes/class/pstat262mc/gabe [thumbnails].jpg)
Gabriele Lillacci says:
In planning what plants and crops to grow for the season, and also in determining which vegetables can be productively grown in a given area, it is important to know the date after which the daily minimum temperature can be expected not to go under a certain threshold for the rest of the season, and the date after which the threshold will be consistently crossed (consistently meaning 3 or more times in a 30-day period). These are called "last frost date" and "end of season date" respectively. Given a threshold of 38 F, the two dates were 3/5 and 11/30 respectively in 2009 at the Santa Barbara Municipal Airport. This problem served as a motivation to try to forecast the minimum temperature on the same dates in 2010. Minimum temperature data were obtained from 3 airport locations in coastal southern California, namely the Santa Barbara Municipal Airport (SBA), the Santa Maria Public Airport (SMX) and the Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). For each location, daily observations from 01/01/2001 to 12/31/2009 are provided. The total number of observations is 3287 for each location. A plot of this data set is shown in the figure below. My forecast (95% interval) for the minimum temperature on 3/5/2010 and 11/30/2010 are 40 F (35 F, 45 F) and 37 F (32 F, 42 F) respectively.
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