Beetle population dynamics forecast
This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (background post).
Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.
A laboratory strain of Callosbruchus maculatus, a beetle, was used to study population dynamics. Initially 50 beetles were placed in a main container with 1 petri dish containing 5g of beans. Every 3 days 5g of fresh beans were added to this container on a new petri dish while petri dishes with beans that had been added 18 days earlier were transferred to a separate `emergence' container. Adults found in the emergence container were transfered to the main container. Three replicates of this experiment counting total adult beetles every 3 days for a total of 408 days are shown in the figure below. My forecast (95% interval) for the number of beetles on day 414 and day 438 are 100 (90, 110) and 300 (275, 325), respectively.
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A laboratory strain of Callosbruchus maculatus, a beetle, was used to study population dynamics. Initially 50 beetles were placed in a main container with 1 petri dish containing 5g of beans. Every 3 days 5g of fresh beans were added to this container on a new petri dish while petri dishes with beans that had been added 18 days earlier were transferred to a separate `emergence' container. Adults found in the emergence container were transfered to the main container. Three replicates of this experiment counting total adult beetles every 3 days for a total of 408 days are shown in the figure below. My forecast (95% interval) for the number of beetles on day 414 and day 438 are 100 (90, 110) and 300 (275, 325), respectively.
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