This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (background post). Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.

chi-yang [thumbnails].jpgChi-Yang Chiu says: Taiwan dollar (TWD) and Philippine peso (PHP) were used to study the daily exchange rates compared to the US dollar (USD). In finance, exchange rate is the price of one country's currency expressed in another country's currency. Figure 1 shows 913 data points of the exchange rates of TWD and PHP to USD from September 1st 2007 to March 1st 2010. The type of the rate here is interbank rate which is an official rate quoted in the media, as in the Wall Street Journal. The plots indicate these two currencies have similar trends. They all went down from September 2007 to March 2008 and then went up to the January 2009 and then went down moderately to the end. My short term forecast (95% interval) for the exchange rates of TWD and PHP to USD on March 11 2010 are 32.10 (31.95, 32.25) and 46.30 (46.15, 46.45) respectively. And my long term forecast (95% interval) on May 27 2010 are 32.85(32.65, 33.05) and 45.90(45.75, 46.15). rate.jpg

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05 March 2010