This [unedited] guest post is by a student in my PSTAT262MC class (background post). Please praise/critique/comment on its quality and importance to you.

hamid [thumbnails].jpgHamid Ghofrani says: The surface temperatures (in Celsius) for lakes Michigan, Tahoe and Caspian were recorded by NASA via satellite on a random number of days for each month starting from January of 1985 and ending on December of 2008. The daily measurements were recorded at either noon or midnight or both in a random fashion. For Lake Michigan, My one month forecast (95% interval) for January 2009 and the one year forecast for 2009 are 3 (2.6,3.8) and 12 (11,13.14) respectively. The plot of the lake temperatures (in Celsius) for all the three lakes along with their trend component (after removing the annual seasonal component from the data are shown below. hamid-blog1.jpg

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07 March 2010